Overachieve · matchup analysis
Leeds United.
Overall gradeCz -0.08
Performance vs opponent grade
PPG = actual points per game vs opponents of each grade. xPts = Poisson xG-derived expected points. zPPG is this team's PPG vs grade-tier compared to the rest of the league — anything ≥ +1.0σ means they consistently beat that tier better than peers.
| Opp grade | Sample | W-D-L | PPG | xPts | Δ (PPG − xPts) | zPPG (league) | zΔ (league) | League PPG (this tier) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avs A | 8 | 1-0-7 | 0.38 | 0.16 | +0.22 | -1.02σ | +0.44σ | 0.97 |
| Bvs B | 8 | 2-4-2 | 1.25 | 1.49 | -0.24 | +0.21σ | -0.07σ | 1.15 |
| Cvs C | 10 | 3-6-1 | 1.50 | 1.10 | +0.40 | +0.18σ | +0.52σ | 1.43 |
| Dvs D | 8 | 4-2-2 | 1.75 | 2.15 | -0.40 | +0.19σ | -0.58σ | 1.62 |
| Evs E | 4 | 1-2-1 | 1.25 | 1.98 | -0.73 | -0.73σ | -0.69σ | 1.83 |
| Fvs F | No matches | |||||||
Higher z-scores = systematically beating that grade tier better than the rest of the league. Negative z-scores against weaker tiers (D/E/F) flag teams that drop unexpected points.