Overachieve · matchup analysis
Leeds United.
Overall gradeCz +0.03
Performance vs opponent grade
PPG = actual points per game vs opponents of each grade. xPts = Poisson xG-derived expected points. zPPG is this team's PPG vs grade-tier compared to the rest of the league — anything ≥ +1.0σ means they consistently beat that tier better than peers.
| Opp grade | Sample | W-D-L | PPG | xPts | Δ (PPG − xPts) | zPPG (league) | zΔ (league) | League PPG (this tier) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avs A | 9 | 2-1-6 | 0.78 | 1.99 | -1.22 | -0.12σ | -1.70σ | 0.84 |
| Bvs B | 7 | 1-5-1 | 1.14 | 0.79 | +0.35 | -0.18σ | +0.48σ | 1.25 |
| Cvs C | 11 | 3-5-3 | 1.27 | 1.32 | -0.05 | -0.11σ | +0.03σ | 1.33 |
| Dvs D | 8 | 2-5-1 | 1.38 | 1.46 | -0.09 | -0.08σ | -0.11σ | 1.42 |
| Evs E | 2 | 1-1-0 | 2.00 | — | — | +0.47σ | — | 1.60 |
| Fvs F | No matches | |||||||
Higher z-scores = systematically beating that grade tier better than the rest of the league. Negative z-scores against weaker tiers (D/E/F) flag teams that drop unexpected points.