Overachieve · matchup analysis
Liverpool.
Overall gradeDz -0.39
Performance vs opponent grade
PPG = actual points per game vs opponents of each grade. xPts = Poisson xG-derived expected points. zPPG is this team's PPG vs grade-tier compared to the rest of the league — anything ≥ +1.0σ means they consistently beat that tier better than peers.
| Opp grade | Sample | W-D-L | PPG | xPts | Δ (PPG − xPts) | zPPG (league) | zΔ (league) | League PPG (this tier) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avs A | 8 | 2-3-3 | 1.13 | 0.65 | +0.47 | +0.26σ | +0.88σ | 0.97 |
| Bvs B | 8 | 4-0-4 | 1.50 | 0.81 | +0.69 | +0.76σ | +1.60σ | 1.15 |
| Cvs C | 10 | 4-3-3 | 1.50 | — | — | +0.18σ | — | 1.43 |
| Dvs D | 8 | 5-2-1 | 2.13 | 1.65 | +0.48 | +0.75σ | +0.55σ | 1.62 |
| Evs E | 4 | 2-1-1 | 1.75 | 2.16 | -0.41 | -0.10σ | -0.33σ | 1.83 |
| Fvs F | No matches | |||||||
Higher z-scores = systematically beating that grade tier better than the rest of the league. Negative z-scores against weaker tiers (D/E/F) flag teams that drop unexpected points.