Overachieve · matchup analysis
Liverpool.
Overall gradeCz -0.06
Performance vs opponent grade
PPG = actual points per game vs opponents of each grade. xPts = Poisson xG-derived expected points. zPPG is this team's PPG vs grade-tier compared to the rest of the league — anything ≥ +1.0σ means they consistently beat that tier better than peers.
| Opp grade | Sample | W-D-L | PPG | xPts | Δ (PPG − xPts) | zPPG (league) | zΔ (league) | League PPG (this tier) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avs A | 9 | 1-3-5 | 0.67 | 0.74 | -0.07 | -0.34σ | +0.30σ | 0.84 |
| Bvs B | 7 | 3-1-3 | 1.43 | 1.98 | -0.55 | +0.31σ | -0.85σ | 1.25 |
| Cvs C | 11 | 8-3-0 | 2.45 | 1.28 | +1.17 | +2.09σ | +2.00σ | 1.33 |
| Dvs D | 7 | 2-3-2 | 1.29 | 1.69 | -0.40 | -0.22σ | -0.65σ | 1.42 |
| Evs E | 3 | 1-1-1 | 1.33 | 1.78 | -0.45 | -0.32σ | -0.41σ | 1.60 |
| Fvs F | No matches | |||||||
Higher z-scores = systematically beating that grade tier better than the rest of the league. Negative z-scores against weaker tiers (D/E/F) flag teams that drop unexpected points.