Overachieve · matchup analysis
Nottingham Forest.
Overall gradeCz -0.20
Performance vs opponent grade
PPG = actual points per game vs opponents of each grade. xPts = Poisson xG-derived expected points. zPPG is this team's PPG vs grade-tier compared to the rest of the league — anything ≥ +1.0σ means they consistently beat that tier better than peers.
| Opp grade | Sample | W-D-L | PPG | xPts | Δ (PPG − xPts) | zPPG (league) | zΔ (league) | League PPG (this tier) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avs A | 8 | 1-2-5 | 0.63 | — | — | -0.59σ | — | 0.97 |
| Bvs B | 8 | 2-4-2 | 1.25 | 1.25 | +0.00 | +0.21σ | +0.36σ | 1.15 |
| Cvs C | 11 | 5-1-5 | 1.45 | 1.46 | -0.00 | +0.07σ | -0.20σ | 1.43 |
| Dvs D | 7 | 1-2-4 | 0.71 | 2.04 | -1.32 | -1.34σ | -1.79σ | 1.62 |
| Evs E | 4 | 2-2-0 | 2.00 | 1.34 | +0.66 | +0.21σ | +0.89σ | 1.83 |
| Fvs F | No matches | |||||||
Higher z-scores = systematically beating that grade tier better than the rest of the league. Negative z-scores against weaker tiers (D/E/F) flag teams that drop unexpected points.