Overachieve · matchup analysis
Aston Villa.
Overall gradeBz +0.50
Performance vs opponent grade
PPG = actual points per game vs opponents of each grade. xPts = Poisson xG-derived expected points. zPPG is this team's PPG vs grade-tier compared to the rest of the league — anything ≥ +1.0σ means they consistently beat that tier better than peers.
| Opp grade | Sample | W-D-L | PPG | xPts | Δ (PPG − xPts) | zPPG (league) | zΔ (league) | League PPG (this tier) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avs A | 8 | 5-0-3 | 1.88 | 1.18 | +0.70 | +1.54σ | +1.26σ | 0.97 |
| Bvs B | 6 | 3-0-3 | 1.50 | — | — | +0.76σ | — | 1.15 |
| Cvs C | 12 | 5-4-3 | 1.58 | 1.82 | -0.24 | +0.39σ | -0.62σ | 1.43 |
| Dvs D | 8 | 4-3-1 | 1.88 | 1.57 | +0.30 | +0.38σ | +0.33σ | 1.62 |
| Evs E | 4 | 2-1-1 | 1.75 | 1.16 | +0.59 | -0.10σ | +0.81σ | 1.83 |
| Fvs F | No matches | |||||||
Higher z-scores = systematically beating that grade tier better than the rest of the league. Negative z-scores against weaker tiers (D/E/F) flag teams that drop unexpected points.