Overachieve · matchup analysis
Aston Villa.
Overall gradeCz -0.50
Performance vs opponent grade
PPG = actual points per game vs opponents of each grade. xPts = Poisson xG-derived expected points. zPPG is this team's PPG vs grade-tier compared to the rest of the league — anything ≥ +1.0σ means they consistently beat that tier better than peers.
| Opp grade | Sample | W-D-L | PPG | xPts | Δ (PPG − xPts) | zPPG (league) | zΔ (league) | League PPG (this tier) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avs A | 11 | 5-0-6 | 1.36 | 0.74 | +0.63 | +1.04σ | +1.52σ | 0.84 |
| Bvs B | 8 | 5-1-2 | 2.00 | 1.38 | +0.62 | +1.29σ | +0.88σ | 1.25 |
| Cvs C | 10 | 3-4-3 | 1.30 | 1.62 | -0.32 | -0.06σ | -0.41σ | 1.33 |
| Dvs D | 5 | 2-1-2 | 1.40 | — | — | -0.04σ | — | 1.42 |
| Evs E | 3 | 1-2-0 | 1.67 | 2.30 | -0.63 | +0.08σ | -0.66σ | 1.60 |
| Fvs F | No matches | |||||||
Higher z-scores = systematically beating that grade tier better than the rest of the league. Negative z-scores against weaker tiers (D/E/F) flag teams that drop unexpected points.