Overachieve · matchup analysis
Brentford.
Overall gradeBz +0.26
Performance vs opponent grade
PPG = actual points per game vs opponents of each grade. xPts = Poisson xG-derived expected points. zPPG is this team's PPG vs grade-tier compared to the rest of the league — anything ≥ +1.0σ means they consistently beat that tier better than peers.
| Opp grade | Sample | W-D-L | PPG | xPts | Δ (PPG − xPts) | zPPG (league) | zΔ (league) | League PPG (this tier) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avs A | 9 | 1-2-6 | 0.56 | 1.46 | -0.90 | -0.56σ | -1.15σ | 0.84 |
| Bvs B | 7 | 2-2-3 | 1.14 | 0.52 | +0.62 | -0.18σ | +0.88σ | 1.25 |
| Cvs C | 13 | 4-7-2 | 1.46 | 1.30 | +0.16 | +0.24σ | +0.37σ | 1.33 |
| Dvs D | 6 | 4-1-1 | 2.17 | 1.75 | +0.42 | +1.17σ | +0.75σ | 1.42 |
| Evs E | 2 | 0-1-1 | 0.50 | 1.85 | -1.35 | -1.30σ | -1.63σ | 1.60 |
| Fvs F | No matches | |||||||
Higher z-scores = systematically beating that grade tier better than the rest of the league. Negative z-scores against weaker tiers (D/E/F) flag teams that drop unexpected points.