Overachieve · matchup analysis
Brentford.
Overall gradeCz -0.23
Performance vs opponent grade
PPG = actual points per game vs opponents of each grade. xPts = Poisson xG-derived expected points. zPPG is this team's PPG vs grade-tier compared to the rest of the league — anything ≥ +1.0σ means they consistently beat that tier better than peers.
| Opp grade | Sample | W-D-L | PPG | xPts | Δ (PPG − xPts) | zPPG (league) | zΔ (league) | League PPG (this tier) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avs A | 8 | 0-2-6 | 0.25 | 0.12 | +0.13 | -1.23σ | +0.30σ | 0.97 |
| Bvs B | 7 | 5-1-1 | 2.29 | 1.43 | +0.85 | +2.48σ | +1.88σ | 1.15 |
| Cvs C | 12 | 4-5-3 | 1.42 | 1.32 | +0.10 | -0.02σ | -0.02σ | 1.43 |
| Dvs D | 8 | 4-2-2 | 1.75 | 2.03 | -0.28 | +0.19σ | -0.44σ | 1.62 |
| Evs E | 3 | 1-1-1 | 1.33 | 2.06 | -0.72 | -0.62σ | -0.68σ | 1.83 |
| Fvs F | No matches | |||||||
Higher z-scores = systematically beating that grade tier better than the rest of the league. Negative z-scores against weaker tiers (D/E/F) flag teams that drop unexpected points.