Overachieve · matchup analysis
Sunderland.
Overall gradeCz -0.16
Performance vs opponent grade
PPG = actual points per game vs opponents of each grade. xPts = Poisson xG-derived expected points. zPPG is this team's PPG vs grade-tier compared to the rest of the league — anything ≥ +1.0σ means they consistently beat that tier better than peers.
| Opp grade | Sample | W-D-L | PPG | xPts | Δ (PPG − xPts) | zPPG (league) | zΔ (league) | League PPG (this tier) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avs A | 10 | 1-3-6 | 0.60 | 1.14 | -0.54 | -0.48σ | -0.52σ | 0.84 |
| Bvs B | 8 | 0-4-4 | 0.50 | 1.84 | -1.34 | -1.28σ | -2.00σ | 1.25 |
| Cvs C | 10 | 5-4-1 | 1.90 | 0.86 | +1.04 | +1.06σ | +1.78σ | 1.33 |
| Dvs D | 6 | 5-0-1 | 2.50 | 1.64 | +0.86 | +1.70σ | +1.51σ | 1.42 |
| Evs E | 3 | 1-1-1 | 1.33 | 2.07 | -0.74 | -0.32σ | -0.81σ | 1.60 |
| Fvs F | No matches | |||||||
Higher z-scores = systematically beating that grade tier better than the rest of the league. Negative z-scores against weaker tiers (D/E/F) flag teams that drop unexpected points.