Overachieve · matchup analysis
Sunderland.
Overall gradeCz -0.04
Performance vs opponent grade
PPG = actual points per game vs opponents of each grade. xPts = Poisson xG-derived expected points. zPPG is this team's PPG vs grade-tier compared to the rest of the league — anything ≥ +1.0σ means they consistently beat that tier better than peers.
| Opp grade | Sample | W-D-L | PPG | xPts | Δ (PPG − xPts) | zPPG (league) | zΔ (league) | League PPG (this tier) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avs A | 8 | 1-3-4 | 0.75 | 1.73 | -0.98 | -0.38σ | -1.59σ | 0.97 |
| Bvs B | 8 | 2-2-4 | 1.00 | 1.34 | -0.34 | -0.34σ | -0.25σ | 1.15 |
| Cvs C | 10 | 2-6-2 | 1.20 | 0.83 | +0.37 | -0.55σ | +0.47σ | 1.43 |
| Dvs D | 8 | 6-1-1 | 2.38 | 1.74 | +0.64 | +1.12σ | +0.76σ | 1.62 |
| Evs E | 4 | 3-0-1 | 2.25 | — | — | +0.53σ | — | 1.83 |
| Fvs F | No matches | |||||||
Higher z-scores = systematically beating that grade tier better than the rest of the league. Negative z-scores against weaker tiers (D/E/F) flag teams that drop unexpected points.