Overachieve · matchup analysis
.
Overall grade——
Performance vs opponent grade
PPG = actual points per game vs opponents of each grade. xPts = Poisson xG-derived expected points. zPPG is this team's PPG vs grade-tier compared to the rest of the league — anything ≥ +1.0σ means they consistently beat that tier better than peers.
| Opp grade | Sample | W-D-L | PPG | xPts | Δ (PPG − xPts) | zPPG (league) | zΔ (league) | League PPG (this tier) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avs A | 4 | 4-0-0 | 3.00 | — | — | +2.59σ | — | 1.17 |
| Bvs B | 8 | 4-2-2 | 1.75 | — | — | +0.82σ | — | 1.23 |
| Cvs C | 12 | 10-0-2 | 2.50 | 1.26 | +1.24 | +2.12σ | +2.58σ | 1.31 |
| Dvs D | 8 | 5-2-1 | 2.13 | 1.88 | +0.25 | +1.14σ | +1.04σ | 1.53 |
| Evs E | 3 | 2-1-0 | 2.33 | 2.87 | -0.54 | +1.10σ | -0.36σ | 1.52 |
| Fvs F | 1 | 1-0-0 | 3.00 | — | — | +3.50σ | — | 1.25 |
Higher z-scores = systematically beating that grade tier better than the rest of the league. Negative z-scores against weaker tiers (D/E/F) flag teams that drop unexpected points.