Overachieve · matchup analysis
Manchester City.
Overall gradeAz +1.66
Performance vs opponent grade
PPG = actual points per game vs opponents of each grade. xPts = Poisson xG-derived expected points. zPPG is this team's PPG vs grade-tier compared to the rest of the league — anything ≥ +1.0σ means they consistently beat that tier better than peers.
| Opp grade | Sample | W-D-L | PPG | xPts | Δ (PPG − xPts) | zPPG (league) | zΔ (league) | League PPG (this tier) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avs A | 6 | 2-2-2 | 1.33 | 1.21 | +0.13 | +0.61σ | +0.29σ | 0.97 |
| Bvs B | 8 | 4-1-3 | 1.63 | 1.57 | +0.06 | +1.03σ | +0.46σ | 1.15 |
| Cvs C | 12 | 8-4-0 | 2.33 | 0.95 | +1.38 | +2.22σ | +2.30σ | 1.43 |
| Dvs D | 8 | 5-2-1 | 2.13 | 0.78 | +1.35 | +0.75σ | +1.68σ | 1.62 |
| Evs E | 4 | 4-0-0 | 3.00 | 2.53 | +0.47 | +1.47σ | +0.68σ | 1.83 |
| Fvs F | No matches | |||||||
Higher z-scores = systematically beating that grade tier better than the rest of the league. Negative z-scores against weaker tiers (D/E/F) flag teams that drop unexpected points.