Overachieve · matchup analysis
Crystal Palace.
Overall gradeDz -0.64
Performance vs opponent grade
PPG = actual points per game vs opponents of each grade. xPts = Poisson xG-derived expected points. zPPG is this team's PPG vs grade-tier compared to the rest of the league — anything ≥ +1.0σ means they consistently beat that tier better than peers.
| Opp grade | Sample | W-D-L | PPG | xPts | Δ (PPG − xPts) | zPPG (league) | zΔ (league) | League PPG (this tier) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avs A | 9 | 1-1-7 | 0.44 | 0.58 | -0.13 | -0.78σ | +0.19σ | 0.84 |
| Bvs B | 8 | 4-2-2 | 1.75 | 0.96 | +0.79 | +0.86σ | +1.12σ | 1.25 |
| Cvs C | 12 | 0-7-5 | 0.58 | 1.78 | -1.19 | -1.39σ | -1.82σ | 1.33 |
| Dvs D | 6 | 3-1-2 | 1.67 | 2.21 | -0.55 | +0.38σ | -0.90σ | 1.42 |
| Evs E | 2 | 0-1-1 | 0.50 | 0.64 | -0.14 | -1.30σ | -0.00σ | 1.60 |
| Fvs F | No matches | |||||||
Higher z-scores = systematically beating that grade tier better than the rest of the league. Negative z-scores against weaker tiers (D/E/F) flag teams that drop unexpected points.