Overachieve · matchup analysis
Crystal Palace.
Overall gradeCz -0.33
Performance vs opponent grade
PPG = actual points per game vs opponents of each grade. xPts = Poisson xG-derived expected points. zPPG is this team's PPG vs grade-tier compared to the rest of the league — anything ≥ +1.0σ means they consistently beat that tier better than peers.
| Opp grade | Sample | W-D-L | PPG | xPts | Δ (PPG − xPts) | zPPG (league) | zΔ (league) | League PPG (this tier) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avs A | 8 | 2-1-5 | 0.88 | 0.63 | +0.24 | -0.17σ | +0.49σ | 0.97 |
| Bvs B | 7 | 2-3-2 | 1.29 | 1.39 | -0.11 | +0.29σ | +0.17σ | 1.15 |
| Cvs C | 12 | 4-4-4 | 1.33 | 1.72 | -0.38 | -0.22σ | -0.88σ | 1.43 |
| Dvs D | 7 | 0-3-4 | 0.43 | 1.41 | -0.99 | -1.76σ | -1.35σ | 1.62 |
| Evs E | 4 | 3-1-0 | 2.50 | — | — | +0.84σ | — | 1.83 |
| Fvs F | No matches | |||||||
Higher z-scores = systematically beating that grade tier better than the rest of the league. Negative z-scores against weaker tiers (D/E/F) flag teams that drop unexpected points.