Overachieve · matchup analysis
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Overall grade——
Performance vs opponent grade
PPG = actual points per game vs opponents of each grade. xPts = Poisson xG-derived expected points. zPPG is this team's PPG vs grade-tier compared to the rest of the league — anything ≥ +1.0σ means they consistently beat that tier better than peers.
| Opp grade | Sample | W-D-L | PPG | xPts | Δ (PPG − xPts) | zPPG (league) | zΔ (league) | League PPG (this tier) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avs A | 8 | 0-3-5 | 0.38 | 1.34 | -0.96 | -0.92σ | -1.26σ | 0.84 |
| Bvs B | 7 | 2-3-2 | 1.29 | 0.60 | +0.69 | +0.06σ | +0.97σ | 1.25 |
| Cvs C | 11 | 4-2-5 | 1.27 | 1.57 | -0.30 | -0.11σ | -0.37σ | 1.33 |
| Dvs D | 6 | 1-0-5 | 0.50 | 0.86 | -0.36 | -1.46σ | -0.59σ | 1.42 |
| Evs E | 2 | 0-1-1 | 0.50 | 1.19 | -0.69 | -1.30σ | -0.75σ | 1.60 |
| Fvs F | No matches | |||||||
Higher z-scores = systematically beating that grade tier better than the rest of the league. Negative z-scores against weaker tiers (D/E/F) flag teams that drop unexpected points.