Overachieve · matchup analysis
West Ham United.
Overall gradeBz -0.01
Performance vs opponent grade
PPG = actual points per game vs opponents of each grade. xPts = Poisson xG-derived expected points. zPPG is this team's PPG vs grade-tier compared to the rest of the league — anything ≥ +1.0σ means they consistently beat that tier better than peers.
| Opp grade | Sample | W-D-L | PPG | xPts | Δ (PPG − xPts) | zPPG (league) | zΔ (league) | League PPG (this tier) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avs A | 8 | 1-3-4 | 0.75 | 1.34 | -0.59 | -0.38σ | -0.93σ | 0.97 |
| Bvs B | 7 | 0-3-4 | 0.43 | 0.74 | -0.31 | -1.59σ | -0.19σ | 1.15 |
| Cvs C | 12 | 5-1-6 | 1.33 | 1.57 | -0.24 | -0.22σ | -0.62σ | 1.43 |
| Dvs D | 7 | 2-2-3 | 1.14 | 1.02 | +0.12 | -0.71σ | +0.09σ | 1.62 |
| Evs E | 4 | 2-0-2 | 1.50 | 2.46 | -0.96 | -0.41σ | -0.95σ | 1.83 |
| Fvs F | No matches | |||||||
Higher z-scores = systematically beating that grade tier better than the rest of the league. Negative z-scores against weaker tiers (D/E/F) flag teams that drop unexpected points.