Overachieve · matchup analysis
Manchester United.
Overall gradeBz +0.49
Performance vs opponent grade
PPG = actual points per game vs opponents of each grade. xPts = Poisson xG-derived expected points. zPPG is this team's PPG vs grade-tier compared to the rest of the league — anything ≥ +1.0σ means they consistently beat that tier better than peers.
| Opp grade | Sample | W-D-L | PPG | xPts | Δ (PPG − xPts) | zPPG (league) | zΔ (league) | League PPG (this tier) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avs A | 8 | 5-1-2 | 2.00 | 1.99 | +0.01 | +1.75σ | +0.10σ | 0.97 |
| Bvs B | 6 | 2-2-2 | 1.33 | — | — | +0.39σ | — | 1.15 |
| Cvs C | 12 | 6-4-2 | 1.83 | 1.54 | +0.29 | +1.00σ | +0.33σ | 1.43 |
| Dvs D | 8 | 5-2-1 | 2.13 | — | — | +0.75σ | — | 1.62 |
| Evs E | 4 | 2-2-0 | 2.00 | 0.84 | +1.16 | +0.21σ | +1.46σ | 1.83 |
| Fvs F | No matches | |||||||
Higher z-scores = systematically beating that grade tier better than the rest of the league. Negative z-scores against weaker tiers (D/E/F) flag teams that drop unexpected points.