Overachieve · matchup analysis
Wolverhampton.
Overall gradeEz -1.10
Performance vs opponent grade
PPG = actual points per game vs opponents of each grade. xPts = Poisson xG-derived expected points. zPPG is this team's PPG vs grade-tier compared to the rest of the league — anything ≥ +1.0σ means they consistently beat that tier better than peers.
| Opp grade | Sample | W-D-L | PPG | xPts | Δ (PPG − xPts) | zPPG (league) | zΔ (league) | League PPG (this tier) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avs A | 8 | 0-2-6 | 0.25 | 0.77 | -0.52 | -1.23σ | -0.81σ | 0.97 |
| Bvs B | 8 | 1-2-5 | 0.63 | 0.57 | +0.05 | -1.16σ | +0.46σ | 1.15 |
| Cvs C | 11 | 1-3-7 | 0.55 | 1.19 | -0.65 | -2.15σ | -1.36σ | 1.43 |
| Dvs D | 8 | 1-3-4 | 0.75 | 1.25 | -0.50 | -1.29σ | -0.72σ | 1.62 |
| Evs E | 3 | 0-1-2 | 0.33 | 2.09 | -1.76 | -1.87σ | -1.86σ | 1.83 |
| Fvs F | No matches | |||||||
Higher z-scores = systematically beating that grade tier better than the rest of the league. Negative z-scores against weaker tiers (D/E/F) flag teams that drop unexpected points.