Overachieve · matchup analysis
Tottenham Hotspur.
Overall gradeAz +0.76
Performance vs opponent grade
PPG = actual points per game vs opponents of each grade. xPts = Poisson xG-derived expected points. zPPG is this team's PPG vs grade-tier compared to the rest of the league — anything ≥ +1.0σ means they consistently beat that tier better than peers.
| Opp grade | Sample | W-D-L | PPG | xPts | Δ (PPG − xPts) | zPPG (league) | zΔ (league) | League PPG (this tier) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avs A | 7 | 1-3-3 | 0.86 | 1.56 | -0.70 | -0.20σ | -1.12σ | 0.97 |
| Bvs B | 8 | 2-2-4 | 1.00 | 1.92 | -0.92 | -0.34σ | -1.28σ | 1.15 |
| Cvs C | 11 | 3-3-5 | 1.09 | 1.42 | -0.33 | -0.82σ | -0.78σ | 1.43 |
| Dvs D | 8 | 3-1-4 | 1.25 | — | — | -0.55σ | — | 1.62 |
| Evs E | 4 | 1-2-1 | 1.25 | 1.86 | -0.61 | -0.73σ | -0.55σ | 1.83 |
| Fvs F | No matches | |||||||
Higher z-scores = systematically beating that grade tier better than the rest of the league. Negative z-scores against weaker tiers (D/E/F) flag teams that drop unexpected points.