Overachieve · matchup analysis
Fulham.
Overall gradeCz -0.31
Performance vs opponent grade
PPG = actual points per game vs opponents of each grade. xPts = Poisson xG-derived expected points. zPPG is this team's PPG vs grade-tier compared to the rest of the league — anything ≥ +1.0σ means they consistently beat that tier better than peers.
| Opp grade | Sample | W-D-L | PPG | xPts | Δ (PPG − xPts) | zPPG (league) | zΔ (league) | League PPG (this tier) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avs A | 7 | 2-1-4 | 1.00 | 0.13 | +0.87 | +0.05σ | +1.55σ | 0.97 |
| Bvs B | 8 | 2-2-4 | 1.00 | 1.39 | -0.39 | -0.34σ | -0.33σ | 1.15 |
| Cvs C | 12 | 6-2-4 | 1.67 | 1.64 | +0.02 | +0.59σ | -0.15σ | 1.43 |
| Dvs D | 7 | 2-2-3 | 1.14 | 2.39 | -1.25 | -0.71σ | -1.69σ | 1.62 |
| Evs E | 4 | 3-0-1 | 2.25 | — | — | +0.53σ | — | 1.83 |
| Fvs F | No matches | |||||||
Higher z-scores = systematically beating that grade tier better than the rest of the league. Negative z-scores against weaker tiers (D/E/F) flag teams that drop unexpected points.