Overachieve · matchup analysis
Fulham.
Overall gradeCz -0.52
Performance vs opponent grade
PPG = actual points per game vs opponents of each grade. xPts = Poisson xG-derived expected points. zPPG is this team's PPG vs grade-tier compared to the rest of the league — anything ≥ +1.0σ means they consistently beat that tier better than peers.
| Opp grade | Sample | W-D-L | PPG | xPts | Δ (PPG − xPts) | zPPG (league) | zΔ (league) | League PPG (this tier) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avs A | 8 | 2-1-5 | 0.88 | 0.13 | +0.74 | +0.07σ | +1.72σ | 0.84 |
| Bvs B | 7 | 2-4-1 | 1.43 | 1.14 | +0.29 | +0.31σ | +0.39σ | 1.25 |
| Cvs C | 14 | 4-2-8 | 1.00 | 1.31 | -0.31 | -0.61σ | -0.40σ | 1.33 |
| Dvs D | 7 | 3-0-4 | 1.29 | 1.65 | -0.36 | -0.22σ | -0.58σ | 1.42 |
| Evs E | 1 | 0-1-0 | 1.00 | — | — | -0.71σ | — | 1.60 |
| Fvs F | No matches | |||||||
Higher z-scores = systematically beating that grade tier better than the rest of the league. Negative z-scores against weaker tiers (D/E/F) flag teams that drop unexpected points.