Overachieve · matchup analysis
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Overall grade——
Performance vs opponent grade
PPG = actual points per game vs opponents of each grade. xPts = Poisson xG-derived expected points. zPPG is this team's PPG vs grade-tier compared to the rest of the league — anything ≥ +1.0σ means they consistently beat that tier better than peers.
| Opp grade | Sample | W-D-L | PPG | xPts | Δ (PPG − xPts) | zPPG (league) | zΔ (league) | League PPG (this tier) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avs A | 6 | 2-2-2 | 1.33 | 1.38 | -0.04 | +0.23σ | -0.39σ | 1.17 |
| Bvs B | 9 | 7-0-2 | 2.33 | 2.06 | +0.27 | +1.73σ | +0.34σ | 1.23 |
| Cvs C | 12 | 6-2-4 | 1.67 | — | — | +0.64σ | — | 1.31 |
| Dvs D | 8 | 3-1-4 | 1.25 | 0.97 | +0.28 | -0.52σ | +1.11σ | 1.53 |
| Evs E | 3 | 2-1-0 | 2.33 | — | — | +1.10σ | — | 1.52 |
| Fvs F | 1 | 0-0-1 | 0.00 | — | — | -2.50σ | — | 1.25 |
Higher z-scores = systematically beating that grade tier better than the rest of the league. Negative z-scores against weaker tiers (D/E/F) flag teams that drop unexpected points.