Overachieve · matchup analysis
Burnley.
Overall gradeEz -1.91
Performance vs opponent grade
PPG = actual points per game vs opponents of each grade. xPts = Poisson xG-derived expected points. zPPG is this team's PPG vs grade-tier compared to the rest of the league — anything ≥ +1.0σ means they consistently beat that tier better than peers.
| Opp grade | Sample | W-D-L | PPG | xPts | Δ (PPG − xPts) | zPPG (league) | zΔ (league) | League PPG (this tier) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avs A | 8 | 0-1-7 | 0.13 | 0.45 | -0.33 | -1.44σ | -0.48σ | 0.97 |
| Bvs B | 8 | 0-3-5 | 0.38 | 1.61 | -1.23 | -1.71σ | -1.84σ | 1.15 |
| Cvs C | 12 | 3-4-5 | 1.08 | 0.62 | +0.47 | -0.83σ | +0.65σ | 1.43 |
| Dvs D | 7 | 1-0-6 | 0.43 | 0.65 | -0.22 | -1.76σ | -0.36σ | 1.62 |
| Evs E | 3 | 0-2-1 | 0.67 | 0.71 | -0.04 | -1.46σ | +0.10σ | 1.83 |
| Fvs F | No matches | |||||||
Higher z-scores = systematically beating that grade tier better than the rest of the league. Negative z-scores against weaker tiers (D/E/F) flag teams that drop unexpected points.