Overachieve · matchup analysis
Newcastle United.
Overall gradeDz -0.39
Performance vs opponent grade
PPG = actual points per game vs opponents of each grade. xPts = Poisson xG-derived expected points. zPPG is this team's PPG vs grade-tier compared to the rest of the league — anything ≥ +1.0σ means they consistently beat that tier better than peers.
| Opp grade | Sample | W-D-L | PPG | xPts | Δ (PPG − xPts) | zPPG (league) | zΔ (league) | League PPG (this tier) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avs A | 8 | 2-1-5 | 0.88 | 1.45 | -0.58 | -0.17σ | -0.91σ | 0.97 |
| Bvs B | 8 | 2-1-5 | 0.88 | 0.70 | +0.17 | -0.61σ | +0.67σ | 1.15 |
| Cvs C | 11 | 3-3-5 | 1.09 | 0.73 | +0.36 | -0.82σ | +0.45σ | 1.43 |
| Dvs D | 7 | 4-2-1 | 2.00 | 1.39 | +0.61 | +0.56σ | +0.73σ | 1.62 |
| Evs E | 4 | 3-0-1 | 2.25 | — | — | +0.53σ | — | 1.83 |
| Fvs F | No matches | |||||||
Higher z-scores = systematically beating that grade tier better than the rest of the league. Negative z-scores against weaker tiers (D/E/F) flag teams that drop unexpected points.