Overachieve · matchup analysis
Chelsea.
Overall gradeDz -0.94
Performance vs opponent grade
PPG = actual points per game vs opponents of each grade. xPts = Poisson xG-derived expected points. zPPG is this team's PPG vs grade-tier compared to the rest of the league — anything ≥ +1.0σ means they consistently beat that tier better than peers.
| Opp grade | Sample | W-D-L | PPG | xPts | Δ (PPG − xPts) | zPPG (league) | zΔ (league) | League PPG (this tier) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avs A | 9 | 1-2-6 | 0.56 | 0.74 | -0.18 | -0.56σ | +0.10σ | 0.84 |
| Bvs B | 11 | 4-3-4 | 1.36 | 1.53 | -0.16 | +0.20σ | -0.28σ | 1.25 |
| Cvs C | 11 | 2-4-5 | 0.91 | 1.14 | -0.23 | -0.78σ | -0.27σ | 1.33 |
| Dvs D | 4 | 2-1-1 | 1.75 | 1.43 | +0.32 | +0.51σ | +0.59σ | 1.42 |
| Evs E | 2 | 2-0-0 | 3.00 | — | — | +1.65σ | — | 1.60 |
| Fvs F | No matches | |||||||
Higher z-scores = systematically beating that grade tier better than the rest of the league. Negative z-scores against weaker tiers (D/E/F) flag teams that drop unexpected points.