Overachieve · matchup analysis
Chelsea.
Overall gradeDz -1.07
Performance vs opponent grade
PPG = actual points per game vs opponents of each grade. xPts = Poisson xG-derived expected points. zPPG is this team's PPG vs grade-tier compared to the rest of the league — anything ≥ +1.0σ means they consistently beat that tier better than peers.
| Opp grade | Sample | W-D-L | PPG | xPts | Δ (PPG − xPts) | zPPG (league) | zΔ (league) | League PPG (this tier) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avs A | 8 | 1-2-5 | 0.63 | 0.63 | -0.00 | -0.59σ | +0.07σ | 0.97 |
| Bvs B | 8 | 2-3-3 | 1.13 | 2.34 | -1.21 | -0.06σ | -1.80σ | 1.15 |
| Cvs C | 12 | 4-3-5 | 1.25 | 1.14 | +0.11 | -0.43σ | +0.00σ | 1.43 |
| Dvs D | 7 | 4-2-1 | 2.00 | 1.45 | +0.55 | +0.56σ | +0.65σ | 1.62 |
| Evs E | 3 | 3-0-0 | 3.00 | — | — | +1.47σ | — | 1.83 |
| Fvs F | No matches | |||||||
Higher z-scores = systematically beating that grade tier better than the rest of the league. Negative z-scores against weaker tiers (D/E/F) flag teams that drop unexpected points.