Overachieve · matchup analysis
Arsenal.
Overall gradeAz +1.70
Performance vs opponent grade
PPG = actual points per game vs opponents of each grade. xPts = Poisson xG-derived expected points. zPPG is this team's PPG vs grade-tier compared to the rest of the league — anything ≥ +1.0σ means they consistently beat that tier better than peers.
| Opp grade | Sample | W-D-L | PPG | xPts | Δ (PPG − xPts) | zPPG (league) | zΔ (league) | League PPG (this tier) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avs A | 6 | 4-1-1 | 2.17 | 1.55 | +0.62 | +2.03σ | +1.13σ | 0.97 |
| Bvs B | 8 | 4-1-3 | 1.63 | 1.72 | -0.10 | +1.03σ | +0.18σ | 1.15 |
| Cvs C | 12 | 8-3-1 | 2.25 | 0.88 | +1.37 | +2.01σ | +2.27σ | 1.43 |
| Dvs D | 8 | 7-1-0 | 2.75 | 2.44 | +0.31 | +1.67σ | +0.33σ | 1.62 |
| Evs E | 4 | 3-1-0 | 2.50 | — | — | +0.84σ | — | 1.83 |
| Fvs F | No matches | |||||||
Higher z-scores = systematically beating that grade tier better than the rest of the league. Negative z-scores against weaker tiers (D/E/F) flag teams that drop unexpected points.