Overachieve · matchup analysis
Arsenal.
Overall gradeAz +1.80
Performance vs opponent grade
PPG = actual points per game vs opponents of each grade. xPts = Poisson xG-derived expected points. zPPG is this team's PPG vs grade-tier compared to the rest of the league — anything ≥ +1.0σ means they consistently beat that tier better than peers.
| Opp grade | Sample | W-D-L | PPG | xPts | Δ (PPG − xPts) | zPPG (league) | zΔ (league) | League PPG (this tier) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avs A | 7 | 4-1-2 | 1.86 | 1.35 | +0.51 | +2.02σ | +1.31σ | 0.84 |
| Bvs B | 7 | 4-2-1 | 2.00 | 2.54 | -0.54 | +1.29σ | -0.84σ | 1.25 |
| Cvs C | 12 | 8-2-2 | 2.17 | 1.75 | +0.41 | +1.55σ | +0.78σ | 1.33 |
| Dvs D | 9 | 7-1-1 | 2.44 | 1.96 | +0.48 | +1.61σ | +0.86σ | 1.42 |
| Evs E | 2 | 2-0-0 | 3.00 | 2.53 | +0.47 | +1.65σ | +0.81σ | 1.60 |
| Fvs F | No matches | |||||||
Higher z-scores = systematically beating that grade tier better than the rest of the league. Negative z-scores against weaker tiers (D/E/F) flag teams that drop unexpected points.